Over the last month I’ve developed a grim fascination with figures. Trying not to let it become a compulsion - but what the heck! - Ali watches news briefings, I watch graphs. In these trying times I think a little short term madness is essential for long term sanity.
I discovered the Worldometers site which captures a whole raft of world statistics, including tracking the daily progress of the pandemic.
At the start of April, experts were suggesting the US might see between 100,000 and 200,000 deaths. At that time, when the tally was still only a few thousand, such figures were laughed at and quickly downplayed by politicians. A week or so later, the expected toll was revised down to between 60,000 and 80,000.
Now, the US is heading for a million cases by Monday and should exceed 60,000 deaths by Tuesday. On current trends I fully expect that original estimate to be realistic - if not optimistic.
I know it’s not really scientific to compare one country with another, when each has different demographics, different healthcare systems, and different approaches to handling the pandemic. But those are the only pointers we have to go on. So looking at countries that are further ahead in the outbreak, places like Italy and Spain reached a plateau in the graphs of daily new cases and daily deaths, followed by a slow decline. The US and Canada are still on the early part of that plateau. In fact, they haven’t really leveled off in a significant way. This tells me that today’s figures will likely at least double or triple over the next month.
While I’m making dire predictions, looking elsewhere in the world I am keeping a worried eye on both Brazil and Russia. With all the attention on China, then Europe and Iran, followed by the USA, they haven’t really been prominent yet. But just looking at the recent rates I can see them both joining the “100,000 club” by the end of the month and mingling with the hard-hit European nations soon after.
Finally, it sickens me to see the protests flaring up in some countries. These figures are bad enough, and they’ve only been kept at this level (I was about to say “this low” but there is nothing low about them) by the measures being taken. Healthcare systems have been stretched, but not completely broken. That will all change drastically if we let down our guards too soon.
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3 comments:
Hi Ian - the figures are 'horrific' and so desperately sad; if death rates increase dramatically in Brazil, India, Russia, Iran/Middle East ... and then Africa - as I suspect they will ... though you'll probably never get your numbers. It'll make it more necessary to stay in our home area - we should be safer. China is gobbling up lots of essential resources - making us dependent on them ... life is interesting to put it mildly - just glad I'm here and you're there ... take care - and don't get too bogged down - though difficult not to ... all the best to you and the family - Hilary
China lied about everything else, so I don't believe they aren't getting new cases outside of people coming back to the country.
The US is testing a lot more, thus we show more cases. Some countries aren't testing that much, so we'll never know how many people had it there.
Hilary, I think this is going to be haunting the world for a long time to come.
Alex, if it's testing that's now showing up more cases, all that means is that the figures currently showing are optimistic. Also I suspect a lot of deaths outside of hospitals and care homes are not being taken into account. All the more reason to say that the 100k-200k figure that people scoffed at might yet turn out to be on the low side.
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